Market Resolution Data Explained: How Polymarket Settles
Understanding how Polymarket markets resolve, what settlement data looks like, and how to use resolution history in your analysis.
How Polymarket Markets Resolve
Polymarket prediction markets have defined resolution criteria — for BTC/ETH/SOL Up/Down markets, the resolution is based on whether the asset price is above or below a strike price at a specific time. Understanding this resolution process is critical for anyone analyzing historical data from PolyHistorical.
Resolution Mechanics for Up/Down Markets
| Market Type | Resolution Time | Resolution Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| 5-minute | Every 5 minutes | BTC/ETH/SOL price vs strike at end of 5-min window |
| 15-minute | Every 15 minutes | BTC/ETH/SOL price vs strike at end of 15-min window |
| 1-hour | Every hour | BTC/ETH/SOL price vs strike at end of hour |
| 4-hour | Every 4 hours | BTC/ETH/SOL price vs strike at end of 4-hour block |
| 24-hour | Daily | BTC/ETH/SOL price vs strike at end of day (UTC) |
What Resolution Data Looks Like
When a market resolves, the outcome is binary: Yes ($1) or No ($0). If BTC is above the strike price at resolution, the "Up" contract pays $1 and the "Down" contract pays $0. PolyHistorical captures the full order book history leading up to each resolution, letting you study how prices converge to the final outcome.
Pre-Resolution Order Book Behavior
- As the outcome becomes clearer, prices move toward $0 or $1
- The bid-ask spread typically narrows as uncertainty decreases
- Order book depth may thin as market makers reduce exposure
- Some markets see a last-minute flurry of activity from informed traders
Using Resolution History for Research
Historical resolution data is invaluable for several types of analysis:
- Calibration studies: Do markets priced at 0.70 actually resolve Yes 70% of the time?
- Market efficiency: How quickly do prices incorporate new information before resolution?
- Strategy evaluation: Test whether your model would have been profitable across past resolutions
- Convergence analysis: How far before resolution do prices begin converging to the outcome?
Resolution Edge Cases
Understanding edge cases helps avoid surprises in your analysis. Some considerations for Polymarket resolution data:
- Disputed resolutions may have unusual order book behavior in the final moments
- Markets near the strike can have high uncertainty until the very last second
- Oracle delays occasionally cause brief periods where the outcome is known but not yet settled
- Complementary markets (Up/Down pairs) should always sum to approximately $1
Accessing Resolution Data with PolyHistorical
PolyHistorical stores order book snapshots through and beyond market resolution. This means you can reconstruct exactly how the order book looked 1 minute, 5 minutes, or 1 hour before each resolution — critical for backtesting and market efficiency research. Start exploring with the free tier for BTC, ETH, and SOL markets.