Crypto Trading

Polymarket BTC Odds Today: Live Bitcoin Up/Down Prediction Markets

How Polymarket BTC odds work — Bitcoin Up/Down prediction markets, how share prices map to probabilities, and how to access historical BTC markets via PolyHistorical.

Looking for Polymarket BTC odds today? Polymarket runs short-duration Bitcoin Up/Down prediction markets across five timeframes — 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and 24-hour — that price the live probability of BTC closing higher or lower than its open. PolyHistorical archives every order book snapshot from these markets so you can study them after they resolve.

What Are Polymarket BTC Odds?

Polymarket BTC odds aren't sportsbook lines. Each Bitcoin Up/Down market is a binary prediction market with two outcomes — Up and Down — and traders buy and sell shares that pay out $1 if their side wins. Because of that payout structure, the share price is directly the implied probability that the market is assigning to each outcome.

How to Read a Polymarket BTC Price

Prices on Polymarket are quoted in cents on the dollar between $0 and $1. The conversion to traditional odds formats is purely mathematical:

Polymarket price	Implied probability	Decimal odds	American odds
$0.10	10%	10.00	+900
$0.25	25%	4.00	+300
$0.50	50%	2.00	+100
$0.75	75%	1.33	-300
$0.90	90%	1.11	-900

The formulas: implied_probability = price, decimal_odds = 1 / price, and american_odds = (1 / price - 1) × 100 for prices below $0.50, or -100 / (1 / price - 1) for prices at or above $0.50.

BTC Market Timeframes Covered

Polymarket runs five Bitcoin Up/Down timeframes in parallel. PolyHistorical captures all of them:

5-minute (5m)
15-minute (15m)
1-hour (1h)
4-hour (4h)
24-hour (24h)

Browse live and resolved BTC markets at polyhistorical.com/markets/btc — every market lists its open time, resolution status, and full snapshot history.

Querying BTC Markets via the API

The PolyHistorical API exposes Polymarket BTC markets through a simple REST interface. Authenticate with your API key in the X-API-Key header:

import requests

headers = {"X-API-Key": "your_api_key"}

# List recent BTC 1-hour markets
res = requests.get(
    "https://api.polyhistorical.com/v1/markets",
    params={"coin": "BTC", "market_type": "1h", "limit": 10},
    headers=headers,
).json()

for m in res["markets"]:
    print(m["slug"], "resolved=", m["resolved"])

What's Available on the Free Plan

The Starter plan is free, no credit card required, and covers BTC markets only. Per the current plan limits:

BTC 5m & 15m — last 50 markets
BTC 1h & 4h — last 24 markets
BTC 24h — last 5 markets
60 requests/minute, 1,000 requests/day
Order book depth and sub-second snapshot granularity included

For unlimited BTC history (plus ETH and SOL), upgrade to Pro at $11/month.