Polymarket Trading Strategy Backtest: Signals to Fills
Turn Polymarket trading ideas into tested strategies by replaying historical order books and measuring signal quality, fills, and risk.
A Polymarket trading strategy backtest should connect each signal to a realistic fill. That means using the historical order book at the exact moment the strategy would have traded.
Signal Inputs
- Probability changes in the outcome price
- Reference price movement for crypto Up/Down markets
- Spread compression or expansion
- Depth imbalance between bid and ask sides
- Time remaining until market close
Execution Rules
For each entry and exit, consume the actual historical book. This reveals whether your strategy is sensitive to order size, thin books, or high-spread periods.
Backtest Output
| Output | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| PnL by market | Finds strategy consistency |
| Maximum drawdown | Shows risk path, not only final return |
| Average slippage | Measures execution cost |
| Capacity | Estimates realistic deployable size |