Backtest Polymarket with Binance Spot and Futures Data
Backtest Polymarket BTC Up/Down strategies using historical prediction-market order books plus Binance Spot and Futures depth.
Backtesting Polymarket with Binance Spot and Futures data lets you test whether prediction-market trades had support from the underlying BTC market. PolyHistorical combines resolved Polymarket order book history with BTC/USDT exchange depth for stronger research workflows.
What This Solves
A Polymarket BTC strategy can look good if it only checks UP/DOWN token prices. A better backtest also asks what BTC was doing on major exchange books, whether liquidity was present, and whether the prediction-market spread was tight enough to enter or exit realistically.
Signals to Test
- Polymarket probability lag after a BTC/USDT spot move
- Futures depth imbalance before Polymarket odds adjust
- Spot and futures spread filters before entering a prediction-market trade
- Prediction-market bid/ask depth compared with exchange-market volatility
- Exit timing before market close or resolution
Backtest Inputs
| Input | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Polymarket order book | Models actual UP/DOWN token fills and slippage |
| Resolved market metadata | Calculates final PnL against known outcomes |
| Binance Spot BTC/USDT depth | Shows cash-market price and liquidity context |
| Binance Futures BTC/USDT depth | Shows leveraged-market pressure and short-term imbalance |
Practical Rule Example
One simple rule is to only buy the side implied by Polymarket when BTC/USDT spot and futures depth both confirm the move and the Polymarket spread is below your maximum threshold. This keeps the backtest closer to conditions a trader could actually act on.