Backtesting

Polymarket BTC Up/Down Backtesting with Historical Order Books

Backtest Polymarket BTC Up/Down strategies using historical order book snapshots, Binance and Chainlink reference prices, and realistic fill modeling.

Polymarket BTC Up/Down backtesting is one of the clearest use cases for PolyHistorical. BTC markets resolve frequently, have many repeated timeframes, and are sensitive to fast reference-price moves where sub-second order book history can matter.

BTC Coverage

  • BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets
  • BTC 15-minute Up/Down markets
  • BTC 1-hour Up/Down markets
  • BTC 4-hour Up/Down markets
  • BTC 24-hour Up/Down markets

Backtesting Ideas

  • Momentum after a reference-price breakout
  • Mean reversion when the UP token overshoots fair value
  • Spread filters near market open or close
  • Liquidity-aware entries that require enough ask depth
  • Exit rules based on time remaining and depth deterioration

Why BTC Up/Down Needs Order Book Data

BTC Up/Down markets can move quickly around threshold levels. A minute candle can miss a short-lived spread spike or liquidity gap. With 300ms snapshots, a backtest can see whether an entry existed at the signal time and what the average fill price would have been.

Example API Query

GET /v1/markets?coin=BTC&market_type=5m&resolved=true
GET /v1/markets/{slug}/snapshots?include_orderbook=true

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