How to Analyze Polymarket Up/Down Markets
A complete guide to analyzing Polymarket BTC, ETH, and SOL Up/Down prediction markets using historical data.
What Are Up/Down Markets?
Polymarket's Up/Down markets are binary prediction markets that ask: "Will BTC (or ETH/SOL) be above or below a strike price at a specific time?" Each market has two outcomes — Up and Down — priced between $0 and $1, representing probabilities.
Market Structure
| Component | Description | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Strike Price | The reference price at market creation | BTC $94,500 |
| Up Price | Probability BTC will be above strike | $0.55 (55%) |
| Down Price | Probability BTC will be below strike | $0.45 (45%) |
| Timeframe | Duration until resolution | 5m, 15m, 1h, 4h, 24h |
| Resolution | Final BTC price vs strike | Pays $1 to winner |
Key Analysis Techniques
1. Price-Probability Mapping
The Up price directly represents the market's estimated probability. If Up is priced at $0.62, the market thinks there's a 62% chance BTC will be above the strike at resolution.
2. Spread Analysis
The bid-ask spread reveals liquidity and consensus. Tight spreads ($0.01-0.02) indicate strong market agreement. Wide spreads ($0.05+) suggest uncertainty or low liquidity — potential opportunity for patient traders.
3. Depth Imbalance
Compare total bid depth vs ask depth in the order book. A strong imbalance (e.g., 3:1 bids to asks) can signal incoming price movement in that direction.
4. Cross-Timeframe Analysis
Compare the same coin across different timeframes. If the 5m market is pricing Up at $0.55 but the 1h market is at $0.65, there may be a short-term pessimism that the longer timeframe doesn't share.
Getting Historical Data
import requests
resp = requests.get(
"https://api.polyhistorical.com/v1/markets",
headers={"X-API-Key": "your_key"},
params={"coin": "BTC", "market_type": "5m"}
)
for m in resp.json()["data"]:
print(f"{m['slug']} — Up: {m['price_up']}")